000			02699nam a2200217 i 4500
003			MIUC
005			20191017113601.0
008			160914s1996 nyua|||| ||| 001 | eng d
020			_a9780471295631
040			_aMIUC _beng _cMIUC
082	0	0	_a368
245	1	0	_aAgainst the gods : _bthe remarkable story of risk / _cPeter L. Bernstein.
260			_aNew York, etc. : _bJohn Wiley & Sons, _c1996.
300			_axi, 383 p. : _bill. b&w ; _c23 cm.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505	0		_aPt.1. To 1200: Beginnings -- Ch. 1. The winds of the Greeks and the role of the Dice -- Ch. 2. As easy as I, II, III -- Pt. 2. 1200-1700: A thousand outstanding facts -- Ch. 3. The Renaissance gambler -- Ch. 4. The French connection -- Ch. 5. The remarkable notions of the remarkable notions man -- Pt. 3. 1700-1900: Measurement unlimited -- Ch. 6. Considering the nature of man -- Ch. 7. The search for moral certainty -- Ch. 8. The supreme law of unreason -- Ch. 9. The man with the sprained brain -- Ch. 10. Peapods and perils -- Ch. 11. The fabric of felicity -- Pt. 4. 1900-1960: Clouds of vagueness and demand for precision -- Ch. 12. The measure of our ignorance -- Ch. 13. The radically distinct notion -- Ch. 14. The man who counted everything expect calories -- Ch. 15. The strange case of the anonymous stockbroker -- Pt. 5. Degrees of belief: exploring uncertainty -- Ch. 16. The failure of invariance -- Ch. 17. The theory police -- Ch. 18. The fantastic system of side bets -- Ch. 19. Awaiting the wildness.
520			_aHuman existence is based upon risk. People in all walks of life - politicians, scientists, business people, sports enthusiasts, even families - routinely face decisions which carry an element of risk. The ability to evaluate and control the level of risk entailed in these decisions is one of the fundamental tenets of modern society, yet from where did this phenomenon arise? This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today. Along the way, Bernstein encounters the questions which troubled some of the greatest thinkers in history, such as Pascal, Fermat, Bernoulli and von Neumann: To what degree should we rely on the past to determine the future? Which matters more when evaluating risk: the facts as we see them or the subjective belief in what lies hidden in the world of time? Have we replaced our blind faith in chance with an over-reliance on science?
650		0	_91868 _aRisk management
650		0	_972 _aDecision making
942			_2ddc _cBK