000			02236nam a2200253 i 4500
003			MIUC
005			20200213093701.0
008			170921s1998 enk 001 | eng
020			_a9780471977858
040			_aMIUC _beng _cMIUC
082	0		_a658.401
100	1		_93130 _aSchwartz, Peter, _d1946-
245	1	4	_aThe art of the long view : _bplanning for the future in an uncertain world / _cPeter Schwartz.
260			_aChichester : _bWiley, _c1998.
300			_axvi, 258 p. ; _c25 cm.
336			_2rdacontent _atext
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [235]-241) and index.
505	0		_aThe pathfinder's tale -- The Smith and Hawken story: The process of scenario-building -- The scenario-building animal -- Uncovering the decision -- Information-hunting and -gathering -- Creating scenario building blocks -- Anatomy of a new driving force: The global teenager -- Composing a plot -- The world in 2005: Three scenarios -- Rehearsing the future -- Epilogue: To my newborn son -- Afterword: The value of strategic conversation -- User's guide: how to hold a strategic conversation -- Appendix: Step to developing scenarios.
520			_aWhat increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life – bottom-line numbers, for instance – but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories – scenarios – and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.
650		0	_9877 _aStrategic planning
650		0	_915 _aBusiness forecasting
650		0	_919 _aOrganizational change _xManagement
942			_2ddc _cBK